Cycle Review · 2022–2025

The pavement reality check

A cycle-over-cycle analysis of the City's pavement program.

Citywide
PCI

+1vs 59 in 2022 · target 75

Unfunded
Backlog

$419M

+41%vs $298M in '22

Annual
Shortfall

$121M

$136.5M required · $14.9M received

For every $1 Sacramento spent on resurfacing, the backlog grew by $2.

$59M resurfaced 2022–2024·$121M backlog added·2.05× ratio

Forecast · Reality

Condition held; dollars didn't.

What the 2022 model predicted vs what happened.

Hover any year for detailsActual2022 forecast

Forecast missed by 6 pts on condition and $26M on backlog.

District Trajectory

Citywide PCI held at 60. Four districts slipped.

D3 TalamantesSouth Natomas

+6 pts56 → 62

D1 KaplanNorth Natomas

+4 pts67 → 71

D2 DickinsonSouth Natomas, Del Paso

+4 pts52 → 56

D4 PluckebaumDowntown, Midtown, Land Park

+4 pts60 → 64

D7 JenningsPocket, Land Park

0 pts60 → 60

D8 VangMeadowview, Parkway

−1 pt63 → 62

D5 MapleOak Park, Curtis Park

−2 pts58 → 56

D6 GuerraEast Sacramento, Tahoe Park

NOW LOWEST IN CITY

−4 pts57 → 53

Data Confidence · LowThree flags in the 2025 report

Inflation · 3% to 4%

Drove part of $121M jump

Asset Value · −$360M

No explanation in report

Inventory · −25% arterials

Likely reclassification